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sci.geo.satellite-nav (Global Satellite Navigation) (sci.geo.satellite-nav) Discussion of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). Topics include the technical aspects of GNSS operation, user experiences in the use of GNSS, information regarding GNSS products and discussion of GNSS policy (such as GPS selective availability).

ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?



 
 
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  #1  
Old April 27th 14, 12:37 AM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Marcelo Pacheco
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Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

Interesting...
I was hearing a launch segment bottleneck preventing GPS launches. If we got one launch every 15 months we were lucky.
So SpaceX comes along, shows a viable alternative to ULA rockets for GPS payloads and out of a sudden, GPS launch tempo jumps 200+%.
3 launches this year. Ok, one launch was rolled from late 2013 due to a stand down, but still what's the rush ?
If IIF-5, IIF-6, IIF-7 gets launched this year, plus IIF-8 and IIF-9 in 2015, that means 28 operational GPS sats even with all IIA and SVN49 off.
Is this USAF being good stewards of the GPS constellation, or political interests pressuring USAF to use as many ULA launch assets as possible, leaving nothing for SpaceX to contest ?
Oh, SpaceX is filling a protest in court against the ULA block buy, Elon Musk specifically mentioned GPS launches as an example of payloads that are cheap enough SpaceX rockets are already proven reliable to launch them (4 launches on the exact same configuration, 10 launches overall for the Falcon 9 family, without a single primary payload lost).
  #2  
Old April 27th 14, 12:54 AM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Alan Browne
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Posts: 1,339
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On 2014.04.26, 20:37 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
Interesting... I was hearing a launch segment bottleneck preventing
GPS launches. If we got one launch every 15 months we were lucky. So
SpaceX comes along, shows a viable alternative to ULA rockets for GPS
payloads and out of a sudden, GPS launch tempo jumps 200+%. 3
launches this year. Ok, one launch was rolled from late 2013 due to a
stand down, but still what's the rush ? If IIF-5, IIF-6, IIF-7 gets
launched this year, plus IIF-8 and IIF-9 in 2015, that means 28
operational GPS sats even with all IIA and SVN49 off. Is this USAF
being good stewards of the GPS constellation, or political interests
pressuring USAF to use as many ULA launch assets as possible, leaving
nothing for SpaceX to contest ? Oh, SpaceX is filling a protest in
court against the ULA block buy, Elon Musk specifically mentioned GPS
launches as an example of payloads that are cheap enough SpaceX
rockets are already proven reliable to launch them (4 launches on the
exact same configuration, 10 launches overall for the Falcon 9
family, without a single primary payload lost).


Please show where they are off plan (not where they are off pace).


--
"Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
-Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07

  #3  
Old April 27th 14, 03:47 AM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Marcelo Pacheco
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Posts: 23
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On Saturday, April 26, 2014 9:54:07 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
Please show where they are off plan (not where they are off pace).


Of course I can't. But from 2010 through 2013 just 4 GPS birds launched, now in 2014 3 launches ? You must be kidding me the coincidence doesn't look very suspicious. Even if IIF-4 were launched late 2013, still it would have been 3 launches in 12 months versus 4 launches in 45 months !

Don't get me wrong. On the GPS constellation side, having another 4 or 5 launches quickly will make GPS constellation perfect for the time being. They could even afford to shutdown all IIA birds transmitting in specs signal but certainly being shamed by the performance of the rest of the birds. I'd rather have 27 IIR+IIRM+IIF birds implementing 24+3 instead of 31 with a bunch of sub par IIAs.

Why not keep the old tempo, with a modest speedup ? So GPS program is immune to the sequester and budget cuts ?
  #4  
Old April 27th 14, 07:42 PM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Alan Browne
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Posts: 1,339
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On 2014.04.26, 23:47 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
On Saturday, April 26, 2014 9:54:07 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
Please show where they are off plan (not where they are off pace).


Of course I can't.


OK

--
"Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
-Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07

  #5  
Old April 28th 14, 01:44 PM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Marcelo Pacheco
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Posts: 23
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On Sunday, April 27, 2014 4:42:41 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
On 2014.04.26, 23:47 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
On Saturday, April 26, 2014 9:54:07 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
Please show where they are off plan (not where they are off pace).

Of course I can't.

OK


Senator McCain seems to share my thoughts. And see the facts as enough evidence to accuse the Air Force procurement of taking improper decisions:
http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/...f-4587c8da1e9d

Specifically mentions GPS satellites living longer than expected as an excuse now to reduce the up for competition launches. However it's not like this is recent news. Pretty damning words for anybody that is acquainted with the GPS program.
  #6  
Old April 28th 14, 08:42 PM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Alan Browne
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Posts: 1,339
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On 2014.04.28, 09:44 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
On Sunday, April 27, 2014 4:42:41 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
On 2014.04.26, 23:47 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
On Saturday, April 26, 2014 9:54:07 PM UTC-3, Alan Browne wrote:
Please show where they are off plan (not where they are off
pace).
Of course I can't.

OK


Senator McCain seems to share my thoughts. And see the facts as
enough evidence to accuse the Air Force procurement of taking
improper decisions:
http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/...f-4587c8da1e9d

Specifically mentions GPS satellites living longer than expected as
an excuse now to reduce the up for competition launches. However it's
not like this is recent news. Pretty damning words for anybody that
is acquainted with the GPS program.


It's McCain's job (and he's good at it) to challenge what is being spent
and how and to raise new ideas or policy. He is also one of the top
targets for defense industry lobbying efforts who are not shy about
putting ideas into his head.

If Congress decided today to change and to move some or all of the
business to SpaceX you wouldn't see a first SpaceX GPS launch until
close to 2020. And the first would likely be a dummy load to test
orbital insertion.

These things will evolve over time and I wonder why you keep bleating
about it from Brazil which would benefit more from your brilliant
analysis and policy suggestions if they were turned to getting SBAS for
South America with Brazil as lead sponsor.

--
"Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
-Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07


  #7  
Old April 29th 14, 11:03 PM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Marcelo Pacheco
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Posts: 23
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

If Congress decided today to change and to move some or all of the
business to SpaceX you wouldn't see a first SpaceX GPS launch until
close to 2020. And the first would likely be a dummy load to test
orbital insertion.

SpaceX has done 4 launches with its current booster configuration. 4 100% successes in a row. 2 of those were GEO launches, one polar, one LEO, dozens of secondary cubesats. Before year's end should have another 4 GEO, 3 LEO launches on the easy side. The only launch profile they aren't doing is MEO.. There's even beyond earth orbit launches on the books, one F9R and one Falcon Heavy launch funded by DoD, culminating with one payload going into Earth-Sun lagrange point.

Including all Falcon 9 rockets, this is the 10th successful launch. Zero primary payload misses.

This isn't some ultra smart analysis, just giving you some easy to find info for someone that was interested enough in searching for it, since you don't seem to be away of how much further SpaceX is then you think.

Finally, SpaceX is on the cusp of retrieving it's first stage booster, should happen this year. All launch costs assume no reusability. Yet the first stage is designed for refuel and relaunch, and it's 75% of total launch costs. Could lead to 50% reduction in launch costs.

"They ignore you, they laugh at you, they fight you, then you win".
SpaceX is clearly entering the they fight you phase. Pretty certain they will win, just don't know how big a win it will be.
  #8  
Old April 30th 14, 02:11 AM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Marcelo Pacheco
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Posts: 23
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

Finally, SpaceX is on the cusp of retrieving it's first stage booster, should happen this year. All launch costs assume no reusability. Yet the first stage is designed for refuel and relaunch, and it's 75% of total launch costs. Could lead to 50% reduction in launch costs.
Correction "75% of total launch costs. could lead to 50% reduction in commercial launch prices."
  #9  
Old April 30th 14, 08:03 PM posted to sci.geo.satellite-nav
Alan Browne
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Posts: 1,339
Default ULA block buy leads to fast GPS launches ?

On 2014.04.29, 19:03 , Marcelo Pacheco wrote:
If Congress decided today to change and to move some or all of the
business to SpaceX you wouldn't see a first SpaceX GPS launch
until close to 2020. And the first would likely be a dummy load to
test orbital insertion.

SpaceX has done 4 launches with its current booster configuration. 4
100% successes in a row. 2 of those were GEO launches, one polar, one
LEO, dozens of secondary cubesats. Before year's end should have


And those were planned over how many years? These things do not happen
quickly.

I have not said that SpaceX can't do it. I've just said it would take
several years for it to happen if congress and the Air Force were
compelled to do something.

IOW it has little to do with GPS.

Like I said earlier: why don't you focus your expertise on these things
on getting South American SBAS up.

--
"Big data can reduce anything to a single number,
but you shouldn’t be fooled by the appearance of exactitude."
-Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, NYT, 2014.04.07



 




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